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Sunday, July 12, 2009

Nissan's Big Bet: Mass Market For EVs


We'll finally get to see the new Nissan August 2nd (that's Tokyo time, it'll still be the 1st here). I assume they'll have the name finalized by then, too. I'm kind of excited to see this car, having tested the drivetrain in the Nissan Cube. The drivability was similar to my RAV, but quicker. Since the Cube is 200 lbs heavier than the final body of the EV, it should be a bit quicker still.

The best thing about the Nissan is the expected price range of $25K-$34K. This is before the $7,500 federal tax credit.

Some think Nissan is taking a gamble by rapidly moving into mass marketing of EVs. They compare Toyota and Honda's approach of "wait and see how the market materializes for EVs, then jump in". I think it's Toyota and Honda that are gambling. They own the hybrid market and are doing quite well, thank you, so why adopt a whole new technology that's untried on a large scale? The gamble is that Nissan grabs the EV market and dominates it till BYD (China) enters the U.S. in 2012.

Those who make the decisions to forgo battery EVs in favor of plug-in hybrids only, ignore a sizable market. I can only assume they have not spent any appreciable time in a well made EV. The benefits overwhelm the perceived problem of range. Once several thousand people get the opportunity to buy a well made EV the likes of Nissan's, the demand from the early adopter's friends and family will expand exponentially. Of this I am certain.

Of course, we need millions of plug-in hybrids, too, so more power to everyone contributing to that market. It's interesting to speculate as to the relative market share the EV will have to the PHEV. I'm guessing close to 50/50. It'll be mostly driven by the cost of gas, that's a given.

All I can think is that Carlos Ghosn (Nissan CEO) has driven an EV, maybe the RAV itself, and this is why he's positioning his company to be the leader in EVs. He knows how good it feels to drive a quiet, powerful car that doesn't pollute. One that only uses domestic energy. He knows that if given the choice, millions of people would choose that over a car that poisons the air and uses mostly foreign energy.

Paul
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Nissan's big bet: Mass market for EVs

YOKOHAMA, Japan -- Nissan Motor Co. CEO Carlos Ghosn is spending big money to make electric vehicles in high volumes -- and soon.

On Aug. 2, Ghosn will unveil the first of three electric models in three vehicle segments that he plans to sell by 2013. The vehicles will be made in the United States, Japan and Europe.

"We have a different strategy from other car manufacturers," Ghosn says. "We are the only ones investing for mass marketing, which is a risk, yes. But we think it is a bet in the right direction."

That bet takes shape at a new lithium ion battery plant and at an electric-vehicle assembly line that Nissan will build at its Smyrna, Tenn., manufacturing complex. A $1.6 billion low-interest loan from the U.S. government will cover some of the costs. Analysts question the payoff.

Nissan is not alone in going electric.

-- In June, Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd., maker of Subaru cars, began leasing electric cars in Japan. Mitsubishi Motors Corp. follows later this month.

-- Toyota Motor Corp. will sell a plug-in Toyota Prius after 2010, taking on the Chevrolet Volt, which goes on sale in November 2010.

-- BMW AG's Mini brand is testing a plug-in model in the United States.

-- Tesla Motors Inc., owned 10 percent by Daimler AG, received a $465 million government loan to help bring its $57,400 Model S electric sedan to market.

'Go for mass market'

But rivals see initial volume in the hundreds or thousands. Ghosn wants hundreds of thousands. "If you go for EV, you should go for mass market," he says.

Analysts warn of hype. Battery-powered cars may be the wave of the future, but costs are high; the recharging infrastructure isn't there, and hefty government subsidies are needed to make electric vehicles competitive.

Nissan sees the technology as its best chance to eclipse Toyota and Honda Motor Co., which beat Nissan in introducing hybrid vehicles.

"This is an opportunity to go into a whole new technology and own that space," says Andy Palmer, head of Nissan's electric-vehicle program. "Hybrid vehicles compete with the internal combustion engine. But EVs are a segment all their own."

Nissan's consumer research shows that "there are definitely more than 100,000 in the United States who want" their next car to be an electric, Palmer says.

Dealers excited

"We can't get them soon enough," says Bill Newton, owner of Newton Nissan in Gallatin, Tenn. "Customers have already been asking about the cars since the news broke about Nissan's plans to build the car here in Tennessee."

In California, Nissan of Elk Grove owner John Driebe thinks Nissan has identified a powerful new market segment. "A lot of Americans really want to stop using imported oil," he says. "We're excited about being able to market a car that will never use a drop of gasoline."

Driebe's market near Sacramento is home to about 80,000 California state employees, many of whom are worried about the state's current budget crisis. Driebe sees commuting state employees as an ideal demographic group for the car.

"By the time the electric car comes on line in 2012, the economy in California will be in a better place," says Driebe, the 2006 chairman of the Nissan Dealer Advisory Board. "Nissan is really committing to this idea, and I think they're going to be proven right."

The Tennessee factories will have capacity for 150,000 vehicles and 200,000 battery packs a year. Production begins in late 2012.

Nissan also will build electric vehicles at its Oppama assembly plant south of Tokyo, starting next fall with a capacity of 50,000. It also plans an electric-vehicle plant for Europe and is studying a plant for China.

The first Japan-built car goes on sale in the United States and Japan next year to fleet customers such as corporations and local governments. It will be a four-door hatchback seating five people -- about the size of the Nissan Cube or Versa -- with a range of 100 miles per charge. Pricing isn't set.

Oil vs. electrons

Batteries are expensive. But Ghosn thinks rising oil prices will tilt the economics in favor of electrons. If crude oil rises above $80 a barrel, Nissan's electric vehicles will be cheaper to own and operate than gasoline-powered cars, he says.

Crude trades for around $70 a barrel today. Analysts say that will rise as the global economy recovers.

Ghosn aims for Nissan's electric cars, minus the battery, to cost as much as a standard car. Consumers will lease the battery at a cost that, including charging, will match what they would have paid for gasoline.

Chris Richter, an analyst with CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, says, "If they can make good on Ghosn's promise of a price comparable to a normal car, I think people will lap these up."

Nissan hasn't said how much it is spending on its electric ambitions. The first of the three models costs as much to develop as three normal cars, a person familiar with the situation says. The total investment in battery and car assembly at Smyrna is expected to exceed Nissan's $1.6 billion loan from Washington, he says.

The machinery needed to make 50,000 batteries a year costs more than $300 million, he said. Add in other costs, and the price tag just for battery plants in the United States, Japan and Europe -- which together will make more than 300,000 battery packs a year -- could total about $1.5 billion.

Analysts ask whether Nissan's bid to take an early lead in electrics is worth the cost. Kurt Sanger, an auto analyst with Deutsche Securities Inc., says, "If the competition just sits back to see if it works and then uses its brand credibility to enter the market, there's no need to be first."

But Ghosn sees his bet as positioning Nissan for the future, not just beating rivals to market with a single model.

"It's a complete new lineup. Big cars, small cars, vans, light commercial vehicles, entry-level cars," Ghosn says. "It's a complete new way of looking at our industry."

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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

The Governor's School of North Carolina

I spoke last night (and am speaking again tonight) to the best and brightest students in North Carolina who are attending a state funded summer program on two North Carolina campuses. To say that the experience has been (and I'm assuming will continue to be) overwhelming is a complete understatement. The reception that I received, their open minded approach and the intelligence I saw in these students gives me great hope. The Governor's School is truly shaping tomorrows leaders and I just wanted to throw a shout out to the incredible minds that I have been encountering and continue to encounter while here.

While the students have impressed me to no end, the faculty is equally if not more impressive! In the short time that I have been here I have seen a level of commitment that is fairly unparalleled. These are the bright minds that should be molding our future and it is my hope that they continue to do what they are doing for a long time coming. These are the folks that are doing it right!

Every state should have a program like this and every young mind should be challenged the way these kids are being challenged - to think, to explore, and to continue learning and evolving.

Thank you to everyone who has made my experience memorable.....you inspire me.

Dave

P.S. Ironically, the reason that I am here in the first place is because of Katherine T., a teacher who asked me come to speak to her class in California last year. One of her students who heard me speak sent me one of the greatest letter I have ever received, so I'm glad I was able to return the favor.

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Sunday, July 5, 2009

The Secret Life of T-shirts

I found this really good write up about what goes into the making of an average t-shirt at emagazine.com. It's quite the eye opener.


Dave


COMMENTARY: The Secret Life of T-Shirts
The Toxic Legacy of Conventional Cotton Clothing, and Why You Should Seek Alternatives

By Brian Clark Howard

The conventional cotton in most T-shirts is responsible for 25% of the world’s pesticide use.

Whether you got it at a rock show, thrift store, vacation spot or trendy boutique, chances are you own a favorite, well-worn T-shirt. Soft, comfortable and cool, the tee is the ultimate laid-back attire, but can just as easily be dressed up with a sports coat or simple skirt and accessories. But there’s more to the T-shirt than wearability—the wardrobe staple leaves behind a serious environmental impact.

Toxic Fields

Most T-shirts are made of cotton, or at least a cotton blend. Unfortunately, the fabric of our lives has a huge impact on the environment and workers' health. Conventionally grown cotton occupies only 3% of the world's farmland, but uses 25% of the world's chemical pesticides. In the U.S., which produces cotton on 1% of agricultural land, 10% of all agricultural chemicals are used on the crop. A 2000 U.S. Department of Agriculture study found that eighty-four million pounds of pesticides were sprayed on cotton in the U.S., ranking it second behind corn. Seven of the top 15 pesticides used on cotton are considered "likely" or "known" human carcinogens by the Environmental Protection Agency.

And it's not just pesticides. Conventional cotton farmers also use heavy inputs of synthetic, petroleum-derived fertilizers, soil additives, defoliants and other substances, which affect soil, water, air and living things for years to come. Further, 75% of the conventional cotton grown is now genetically modified, a fact that worries critics of the technology, who fear it could contaminate natural organisms and lead to super pests.

Processing

After harvesting, cotton is often treated with chlorine bleach to whiten it. Not only is chlorine toxic at acute doses, but it can also be a skin and lung irritant at lower concentrations. The fabric is also frequently treated with formaldehyde resins—often to render it "easy care”—another highly toxic chemical.
Traditionally, colors are created with dyes that may contain heavy metals, such as chromium copper. Even some so-called “natural dyes” can be mixed with heavy metals to prolong their color.

Printing

If you made T-shirts in art class, chances are you used screen printing. Although there are less-toxic screen printing techniques available today, most major operations rely on the old methods—including an ink called plastisol, a variation of the toxic-to-produce polyvinyl chloride (PVC).

Discharge printing is faster and produces more vibrant colors, but often uses toxic chemicals as well. For example, zinc formaldehyde sulfoxylate (ZFP) is often used to print light colors onto a dark shirt. But again that includes formaldehyde, a known carcinogen. Some people have even gone so far as to suggest that it might not be a good idea to wear such shirts to sleep or while working out.

Shipping

Our economy is global, and so are our T-shirts. Much of today's cotton is grown in the Middle East and India, yet garments are most commonly made in East Asia. Finished products are typically shipped from China and elsewhere to North America and other markets. That results in a substantial use of fuel (often the very dirty stuff burned by container ships), not to mention release of greenhouse gases, particulates and other pollutants.

Plus, it's not uncommon for shipping companies to spray fabrics with insecticides in transit.

Buy Local, Buy Organic

You can help decrease the footprint of your wardrobe, and still look great, by buying locally produced goods, especially stuff made from fibers sourced in your region. Yes, it can help to buy American, although as the above notes sometimes only part of the entire process happens domestically.

It's always a good idea to buy used clothes, or swap things with friends, family or even strangers (swap meets can also be a lot of fun). Used clothes already exist—they don’t consume energy during growing, production and distribution like new clothes—so their overall carbon footprint is a lot less.

You can also find an increasing selection of clothes made from organic cotton, or alternative fibers like bamboo, hemp or recycled materials. These greener goods keep coming down in price, and in many cases are cost competitive with all but the very cheapest, low-quality duds.

Organic cotton, in particular, is grown without synthetic pesticides and herbicides, using techniques that replenish and maintain soil fertility and biodiversity. By buying third-party certified organic, you have greater assurance that the product is produced with genuine sustainability in mind. In the U.S., no genetically engineered materials are allowed in organic products.

The good news is that the farming of organic cotton has been on the rise. That segment increased 152% during the 2007-2008 crop year, according to the Organic Cotton Farm and Fiber Report 2008 by Organic Exchange. Next time you’re shopping for a new favorite tee, look for the organic label.

BRIAN CLARK HOWARD is the Home and Eco Tips editor for The Daily Green


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Chocolate Powered Cars?



Very Cool.

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Thursday, June 25, 2009

Where Can I Recycle.....?

Just type in what you need to recycle and where you are and voila, instant answers. It's just that simple.








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Recycling and Composting in San Francisco Now The Law!



Mayor Gavin Newsom just made SF the first place in the country to make recycling and composting mandatory. This is a huge step forward and one I hope other cities will follow. Check out the writeup here.

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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

DOE Money Heading Towards Electric Vehicles!

According To Paul

We've been waiting for several months to hear this good news. Three EV pioneers, Tesla, Nissan and Ford, are receiving loans from the Department of Energy’s Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing program. Totaling $8 billion, the funds will be used to manufacture efficient vehicles and electric drive components.

In Tesla's case, they'll receive a total of $465 million to set up their factory in Southern California for the production of their hot Model S. This car has generated a lot of interest given its superb styling, performance and efficiency. The price point of $57K makes it affordable for a large segment of the population. Part of the money will be used to set up a production line for their battery packs and electric drive trains to be sold to other manufacturers such as their new partner, Daimler.

Nissan will receive $1.6 billion to build EV and battery factories in Tennessee. Having experienced the drive train for their new EV, I am very pleased that this will enable them to ramp up quickly to 150,000 EVs annually. This car will appeal to a larger segment of the population given its price of around $30K.

Ford is the big surprise for me. They're getting the lion's share of the money at $5.9 billion. They'll use it to increase the efficiency of several of their cars and trucks. I assume some will go toward building their new EV with the help of Canadian parts supplier, Magna.

This announcement assures that large numbers of electric vehicles will be available to U.S. customers starting late next year and growing rapidly soon after. Additionally, tens of thousands of jobs will be created.

There will more announcements to come. I'm betting that Bright Automotive in Indiana will be on the next list of recipients. They sure deserve to be.

Paul
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